Do manifestos matter?
from YouGov:
Much will be made of the popularity of parties’ manifesto pledges, but ultimately they are much less important to how people vote than other factors like leadership and core values.
In every election, some political figure will either say that their party will start to gain popularity when the public sees its manifesto, or that people should vote based on “policies, not personalities”. But however popular a policy, it won’t bring victory to a party destined to defeat or sink a party cruising to victory.
In 2001, the Conservatives unveiled tax cuts that performed strongly with voters, but the party still lost the election heavily. The same is true in 2005 when the Tories pushed popular policies on immigration and asylum seekers but the party fell well-short of power. Again in 2015, Ed Miliband’s energy price freeze fared well in the polls, but the Labour party went backwards in the subsequent election.
Following the leak of Labour’s 2017 election manifesto, it is likely that some will point to the popularity of individual policies as evidence that Labour will see a surge of support and so take power on June 8. However, if voters are unsure of the party and the politician pushing the policy, arguably it doesn’t really matter whether something such as rail renationalisation gains favour with the public.
In successful election campaigns policy only comes into play once a party and leader have passed three key hygiene tests: 1. Connecting on core values; 2. Positioning on the big issues of the day; and 3. Leadership. This was as true for Tony Blair’s general election win in 1997 as it was for Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership victory amongst party members in both 2015 and 2016.
However, when it comes to the Labour party leader facing the whole electorate in 2017, it is unlikely that any policy will deliver victory as many voters have already made up their minds on these hygiene tests.
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