Ireland: Abortion campaigners seek to learn from gay marriage debate
by Hugh Linehan, Irish Times:
Next major referendum will almost certainly be closer and more fiercely fought than the last.
In the final weeks of the marriage equality referendum campaign in May 2015, some seasoned political observers began to question whether the opinion polls – all of which showed a massive lead for the Yes side – were actually correct.
Were there in fact thousands of “shy No” voters out there, who, for whatever reason, weren’t telling the truth about their voting intentions?
Some newspaper columnists warned of a hidden backlash from Middle Ireland against the apparently universal media consensus in favour of voting Yes. Reports suggested that rural Fine Gael politicians were getting a much more negative reaction to the campaign on the doorsteps than was evident in the polls, and the former editor of The Irish Times, Geraldine Kennedy, told RTÉ she believed the No side would prevail.
Of course, the referendum passed comfortably, with all but one constituency in the country voting in favour.
But the last-minute wobbles were not entirely unfounded: the final Yes vote of 62 per cent was several percentage points below the level of support indicated by the final polls. Because this had no material impact on the result, it was largely ignored. But it demonstrated yet again that referendums are more fluid and unpredictable than other electoral contests, and that the centre of gravity can shift over the course of a campaign.
Some of the key voices from both sides in 2015 will be active again in the next major referendum, which will almost certainly be closer and more fiercely fought. The Eighth Amendment to the Constitution, prohibiting abortion except in cases where there is a threat to the life of the pregnant woman, is currently under consideration by the Citizens’ Assembly. The general expectation is that the assembly will recommend constitutional change, and pro-choice groups are optimistic that such a recommendation will lead to a vote on the removal of the Eighth Amendment, leaving the Oireachtas to determine an appropriate legislative framework governing the provision of abortion in Ireland.
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