23 countries will lose half their populations by 2100
by Shannon Roberts, MercatorNet:
We need to better recognise motherhood’s important societal role, or face the economic, social, and geopolitical consequence.
Global demographic news has been dominated by the recent population forecasts in The Lancet. While they are hardly new or unexpected, they have made a larger portion of the world sit up and take notice of extreme and widespread global population decline.
Global population decline
Taking into account mortality, fertility, and migration, the study forecasts that global population will peak at 9·73 billion people in 2064 and decline to 8·79 billion by 2100. Thus, it predicts population decline will happen sooner than current United Nations forecasts.
By 2100, 183 of the 195 countries in the study are forecast to have a fertility rate lower than the global replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. As a result, it is forecast that the populations of as many as 23 countries will more than half between 2017 and 2100, including Japan, Thailand, Ukraine and Spain. Another 34 countries will likely decline by 25–50%, including China which is forecast to experience a 48% decline. The study report explains:
“Our findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences.”
Related Posts
Tags
Share This
