by Janet Eastham, Telegraph
Government officials raise central estimate from around 13,500 deaths to more than 25,000
The number of people expected to die through assisted deaths in the first decade after legalisation is passed has almost doubled, The Telegraph can reveal.
Government officials have raised the central estimate from around 13,500 deaths to more than 25,000. The figures, published last Friday in a new impact assessment for the revived assisted dying bill, appear to have gone unnoticed.
The upper estimate has also risen, from 28,300 deaths over 10 years to more than 47,300. The report also includes data suggesting that the assisted death toll could exceed 81,000 if uptake in England and Wales matched New Zealand’s.
MPs will vote on the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill next week. The proposed legislation would allow terminally ill adults with six months or less to live to seek an assisted death, subject to approval by two doctors and a multi-disciplinary panel.
The projected higher uptake means the service is expected to cost more, with the annual bill reaching £46.6m by year 10 – around £4,470 per applicant. The assessment warns that several costs are still excluded.
At the same time, the estimated value of healthcare, social care, pensions and benefits no longer required rises to £155.6m a year – about £24,860 per assisted death. However, officials stress these are not necessarily real savings, as NHS and council capacity may simply be used by other patients.