by Matt Goodwin
The White British will become a minority by the year 2063. The foreign-born and their descendants will become a majority by 2079. And by the end of this century, by the year 2100, at least one in five people on these islands will be following the Islamic faith, up from roughly one in every fourteen today.
These are just a few of the bombshell findings from my latest research report, which received extensive media coverage yesterday, and which I present in detail at the end of this post alongside accompanying slides and the report.
Population projections are notoriously difficult.
But by drawing on the most reliable census data and using something called the ‘cohort-component’ approach, a standard technique in the study of populations, we can project how the UK population will evolve between today and the year 2100.
And what we find is that unless there is a radical change of policy, unless the country changes its current direction of travel, then the share of the population that is White British —defined as people who tick ‘White: English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish, or British’ in the most recent census— will collapse over the next seventy-five years, from over 70 per cent today to below 34 per cent by the year 2100.
White Britons will become a minority in this country in the year 2063, just 38 years from now, while among the under-40s, the tipping point will come much sooner, as early as 2050. A white British child who is born today, for example, will already be a minority among their peer groups by the time they turn 25 years old.
[…] Our projections also reveal how the religious identity of the country, too, will be completely transformed, with the Muslim population surging three-fold, from 7 per cent today to over 15 per cent by 2075, and then to nearly 20 per cent by the year 2100.