By Joe Carter, TGC.
After decades of steady liberalization, society appears to be having second thoughts about some aspects of America’s (im)moral revolution.
For instance, between 1996 and 2022, the percentage of U.S. adults in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage increased by 44 points, from 27 percent to 71 percent. But in 2024, the figure began to drop and, according to Gallup, has marginally declined each year since. Today, the number in support is 65 percent.
Similarly, the percentage viewing gay or lesbian relations as morally acceptable has dropped to its lowest point in a decade (62 percent). And the share of Americans who consider changing one’s gender to be morally acceptable has declined eight points over the past five years, down to 38 percent. Acceptance of several other issues—having a baby outside of marriage (58 percent), gambling (57 percent), sex between teenagers (35 percent)—has also declined in recent years.
The shift is encouraging until you realize what caused it. Those of us who have spent years (or even decades) arguing against immorality would love to take credit for changing people’s minds. The reality, though, is they changed because the consequences arrived.
Reality Is the Great Persuader
For example, few Americans were argued out of approving of gambling. Instead, they observed the consequences after the Supreme Court opened the door to sports betting in 2018. When the casino moved into every young man’s pocket, when calls to gambling addiction helplines surged, when sportsbooks turned every game into a wager, the problems associated with ubiquitous, legalized gambling became harder to ignore.
The eight-point drop in support for gender transition also didn’t come because we won the debate. It came from undeniable evidence of harm and from the testimony of detransitioners whose stories could no longer be dismissed. In each case, the danger had to become manifest before the public would reconsider its support.