by Norman Fenton, TCW
THE mainstream media have dismissed the hypothesis of a ‘genocide’ against white farmers in South Africa as a conspiracy theory, but they are using the wrong data. When the correct data are used there is statistically significant evidence that white farmers are currently at least three times more likely to be murdered than black farmers. Moreover, the recent annual murder rate of white farmers is more than double the overall annual murder rate for South Africa. Whether or not this constitutes a ‘genocide’ is an open question.
In rubbishing the genocide claim, the MSM have claimed (correctly) that
- blacks are far more likely to be murder victims generally;
- the proportion of farmers among the murdered is small;
- there are far more white farmers than black farmers.
For example, Reuters ‘fact check’ asserts:
- South Africa has one of the world’s highest murder rates, with an average of 72 a day in a country of 60million people. Most victims are black;
- South African police recorded 26,232 murders nationwide in 2024, of which 44 were linked to farming communities. Of those, eight of the victims were farmers;
- Data collected by white farmers themselves does not support the notion of a genocide. The Afrikaner farmers’ union TLU-SA has counted 1,363 white farmers murdered since 1990, or an average of 40 a year – far less than 1 per cent of total murders.
However, while these data are correct (although the 2024 data appear incomplete), they fail to address the genocide hypothesis. In fact, in statistical terms they fail to address the more basic hypothesis that: ‘White farmers are significantly more likely to be murdered than black farmers.’