by Ian Paul, Psephizo
Summary: This article, along with supporting linked data that enables exploration of the election results, seeks to offer an initial analysis of the recent elections to General Synod. After noting the complexities that such an analysis faces, it provides an overview of some of the key features of the election results.
The composition of the new Synod is then explored in relation to various features: the past Synodical experience of members, their age distribution, and the balance of men and women standing and being elected. Brief observations in relation to GMH and LGBTQI+ candidates and the evolution we may be seeing towards more of a 3-party (or 3-bloc) pattern of candidates is followed by exploration of the stance of the elected members on questions related to marriage and sexuality. Noting the difficulties in assessing the position of many members it explains how it has attempted to reach a conclusion.
This shows that revisionists have again likely secured a small majority among the clergy but argues that the House of Laity is too close to call, in part because of the number of members where there is insufficient clear evidence of their views. However, it seems likely the laity are more conservative than before, and it is not impossible there could be a conservative majority. The conclusion considers the implications if this proves to be the case.
This outcome must raise serious questions about the wisdom of bringing the questions left unresolved at the end of PLF back into this new Synod whose term of office is almost co-terminous with that of Archbishop Sarah’s primacy. The fact that even among the clergy the revisionist majority is unlikely to reach as high as 55:45 means that standalone services now have no chance of passing given the need for 2/3 majority in every House. And any other significant changes will face major obstacles.