by Ian Paul, Psephizo
There are three questions which come up in relation to the growth of religious movements, particularly the Christian faith. How would you answer each of these?
a. Why is Islam growing in the UK and in the world at the moment?
b. What was the primary reason for the growth of the early church?
c. Why in the West do conservative churches generally resist the decline that affects more liberal ones?
Now these are big questions, and the answers are bound to be complex. But generally in answer to (a) most people will reach for an explanation around the rise of fundamentalism and a global rejection of Western liberal values. In answer to (b) many will think about the cultural and religious distinctiveness of the early Christian movement, and its appeal in relation to the cruelty and fatalism of much pagan religion. And in answer to (c) many will reach for ideas of commitment and discipleship which resist the corrosion of modern individualist and consumerist culture.
But there is a good case to be made that all three have the same explanation: childbirth.
Let’s consider Islam. Although the Muslim population is set to increase because of immigration, a much more powerful longer-term factor is differential rates of childbirth compared with the indigenous UK population.
The Muslim population of the UK is set to triple in 30 years, according to projections from the Pew Research Centre. Under the model which assumes median migration levels, the number of Muslims in the country would rise from 4.1m in 2016 to 13m in 2050. It said the research followed a “record influx of asylum seekers fleeing conflicts in Syria and other predominantly Muslim countries”.
The UK also has one of the largest gaps in fertility rates between Muslims and non-Muslims, with Muslim women having an average of 2.9 children compared to the 1.8 had by non-Muslims. This means that even if migration were to stop completely, the group’s population share would rise by more than 3 per cent in the UK, as well as in France, Italy, and Belgium.
In contrast to growth through migration and birthrates, only 2.9% of UK Muslims consider themselves to be ‘converts’. The same is true globally; the primary reason why Islam is growing around the world is that predominantly Muslim countries have a lower average age and higher fertility rate than non-Muslim countries.