by Samir Jeraj, Hyphen
Analysis of 2021 census data also finds young Muslim voters could have biggest impact in urban areas such as Birmingham, Bradford and east London
The government’s plan to lower the voting age to 16 before the next general election will enfranchise more than 150,000 young British Muslims — who will make up more than a tenth of all new voters.
An estimated 156,000 16 and 17-year-old Muslims will be eligible to vote in 2029, based on Hyphen’s analysis of 2021 census data. Muslims in the UK are on average younger than followers of other religions, and 10.7% of the youngest voters in 2029 will be Muslim — compared with 6.5% of the general population.
Young voters are likely to be concentrated into urban areas, with constituencies in Birmingham, Bradford and east London — all areas with high Muslim populations — making up eight of the 10 seats that are currently home to the most 16 and 17-year-olds.
Analysis by the thinktank More in Common has already found an overlap between these seats and the places where independent candidates performed well at the 2024 general election.
“From my experience, there is an awakening of young people,” said Abdi Hassan, the founder of Coffee Afrik, a charity and community organisation working in east London.
“They feel more frustrated with local systems and national government. There is a lack of representation for young people’s voices, particularly around social justice issues such as police stop and search and mental health.”
Young voters could have a particularly significant impact on the outcome of the likely 2029 election, particularly in seats with high Muslim populations in Birmingham, Bradford and east London, according to consultancy firm 5654 & Company.