by Ollie Corfe, Telegraph
Data shows this community has the power to deliver a devastating blow to Labour at the ballot box
Donald Trump has suggested Sir Keir Starmer’s reluctance to support US-Israeli attacks on Iran is because of his fear of a backlash from Muslims at the ballot box.
Asked by a journalist on Tuesday if Sir Keir was pandering to Muslim voters, the US president said: “It could be.”
Whether or not the Prime Minister is “pandering”, he will be well aware of the impact the community’s support – or lack of it – will have on his chances of clinging to power.
The British Election Study found that 80 per cent of Muslims voted for the Labour Party at the 2019 general election, but this changed radically in 2024.
In seats where Muslims made up at least a tenth of the population, Labour suffered a 12 percentage point drop between 2019 and 2024. That compared to a 1.6 percentage point increase in its vote share nationally.
This key group for Labour turned towards pro-Gaza candidates because of the Government’s support for Israel after it went to war with Hamas in 2023. The proscription of Palestine Action as a terrorist organisation has only accelerated this electoral migration.
The Gorton and Denton by-election on Thursday – in a constituency where 28 per cent of the population is Muslim – gave No 10 further cause for concern. The Green Party won after being accused of running a cynical “sectarian” campaign by urging voters in the Manchester suburb to “punish” Labour for Gaza.
Read also: Keir Starmer receives standing ovation from Muslims at ‘Big Iftar’ event after making peace pledge for Palestine by Ben McCaffrey, GB News