Growth, Decline and Extinction of UK Churches
By John Hayward, Church Growth Modelling:
Christianity is declining in the UK. In particular, the numbers participating in churches are decreasing each year. Of course, not all denominations are declining. A few are growing. What is the pattern of growth and decline across the UK denominations? And what does the future look like for these churches?
These are the types of questions my church growth models are designed to answer. This post will compare church growth and decline for the last five years of available membership data. Then, I will use the Limited Enthusiasm Model of church growth to estimate the strength of each church, represented by its “R” number. This number can indicate that a church is heading for extinction. Another method can estimate the extinction date. Finally, I will examine how churchmanship may influence growth and decline. (A second post will deal with the relationship between decline and progressive ideology.)
Some caveats. Firstly, models are based on assumptions. Thus, they are unlikely to capture a given church’s membership dynamics fully. Usually, though, they are close enough. Secondly, models make forecasts, not predictions. There are always random events that prevent an accurate description of the church’s numerical future. Also, the data is rarely that accurate or consistent. However, the forecasts can help churches examine their policies to enhance growth or combat decline.
The original analyses appear on other pages on this website. I mainly use data collected by Peter Brierley, but where possible, I enhance with data using denominational reports…most UK denominations have R less than one and are heading for extinction. They are the same churches as in figure 1! However, the reproduction potential shows that conversion is at its worst in the Welsh and Scottish churches. Is this weakness in recruitment a national trait? Is England somehow more “Christian”?
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