Why the headlines about church decline might be misleading
by Peter Ould, Premier:
The latest results from the British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey provide an encouraging note on religious adherence in the UK, but the devil is in the detail.
The BSA survey is an annual statistical exercise where 3,000 people are questioned about their lives, beliefs and opinions. There are a number of core questions which are asked each year and then each annual survey also looks at key issues of the moment. The current report, for example, has a large section on Brexit issues.
Downward pattern
The latest BSA survey suggests that the decline in religious belief has bottomed out, with the number of people claiming to be Christian growing from 42% to 43% of the population. At first sight this is encouraging, but such a move (up 1%) is well within the margin of error of the sample and may not be a true representation of what is happening in the population at large. Statisticians tend to rely on trends over time and if you look at the long run direction of the numbers over the last decade, the pattern is still moving downwards.
If you look at the long run direction of the numbers over the last decade, the pattern is still moving downwards
This ties in with some of the analysis undertaken by leading denominations in the country. The Church of England publishes its attendance figures every year and these have seen sometimes catastrophic declines for the past two decades. While some dioceses are now reversing that trend (most notably London with its proactive church planting agenda which stands in stark comparison to Southwark south of the river where the continued decline in attendance has been accompanied by an historical less open attitude to cross parish evangelism) the general outlook is still one of falling numbers and aging congregations.
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