Time is Not on Europe’s Side
by William Kilpatrick, Crisis Magazine:
The Pew Research Center is out with a new study of Europe’s growing Muslim population. The first thing to notice is that Pew’s estimate of the current Muslim population for several countries is not much different from estimates of ten years ago. For instance, Pew says that the current size of the Muslim population in France is 8.8 percent, but ten years ago it was widely reported that the Muslim population of France was already at ten percent. Either earlier estimates were way off, or Pew is employing rather conservative standards of measurement.
Whatever the case, the most interesting aspect of the study is not the estimate of current population, but the projection of future population. The Pew report says that the Muslim share of Europe’s population will increase even with no future migration.
The study provides three different scenarios—one for zero migration, one for medium migration, and one for high migration. Under the zero scenario, the Muslim percentage of France’s population by 2050 would be 12.7 percent, but under the high scenario it would be 18 percent. For Germany, the low scenario would result in an 8.7 percent Muslim population and the high scenario would translate to 19.7 percent. The high migration measure would yield 17.2 percent for the UK, 18.2 percent for Belgium, 19.9 percent for Austria, and 30.6 percent for Sweden.
Since a number of observers of the European scene are predicting much higher Muslim percentages by 2050, it may be that even Pew’s high estimate is on the low side.
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