Arresting the fertility crisis
by Miriam Cates, Artillery Row:
This week a study in the Lancet revealed that the UK now has a Total Fertility Rate of just 1.49 children per woman. Total Fertility Rate is the average number of babies that each woman has given birth to by the end of her fertile years (usually around 45 years old). TFR is the measure used by demographers to track changes in populations over time, and it is well established that a TFR of at least 2.1 children per woman is needed to achieve “replacement rate” and maintain a stable population.
The UK’s TFR has been declining since before the 1970s, but the news that the average British woman is now having just 1.49 children is a cause for significant concern. In order to maintain the labour force and an economy that can support pensions and healthcare, we need one baby to be born for each 50-year-old in the population (so that the baby enters the workforce at around the time the 50 year old will retire). For some time now there has been a discrepancy between the number of babies born and the number required for demographic stability; this “Birthgap” currently stands at around 200,000 babies per year.
We are already experiencing the impact of this birthgap. The labour force is extremely tight. There is a shortage of workers in vital sectors, especially in social care. Schools across the country are considering staff redundancies because of declining pupil numbers. Local councils face a funding crisis as rising adult social care bills blow huge holes in their budgets. And, as is often reported by newspapers (and keenly felt by us all), taxation levels are at a record high. Although political parties are prone to ascribing high taxes to government failure, increased public spending (and the tax rises that are required to fund this) is an inevitable consequence of an aging society. In the 1970s, there were four people of working age for every pensioner. Thanks to declining birth rates the ratio is now three to one, and fast approaching two to one. In other words, each worker in 2050 will, through their taxes and labour, have to support double the number of pensioners than a worker in 1970. If you want to know why taxes and public spending are so high and the health and care sector so stretched, look no further than the declining TFR.
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