The influence of Islam on the election
by Tim Dieppe, Christian Concern:
Head of Public Policy Tim Dieppe comments on the growing influence that Islam is having on this nation, in the lead up to the general election.
The 2024 general election is probably the first time that we have seen an Islamic agenda openly influencing an election in the UK.
This influence is seen clearly in the extent to which parties and candidates are keen to present themselves as supportive of Palestinians in the Gaza conflict. There is also a concerted campaign to get Muslims voting on Islamic issues.
Muslim votes may swing marginal constituencies
The Henry Jackson Society has released a report showing that Islam is the largest minority religion in 129 of the 220 most marginal seats in the general election. That’s 58.6% of the marginal seats. A marginal seat is one where the margin of victory is expected to be no more than 10% of the electorate. There are 220 marginal seats in this election which is just over a third (33.8%) of all available seats.
Islam is the largest religious minority in more than half of the marginal seats currently held by the Conservatives (98 out of 176, or 55.6%). Islam is also the largest minority religion in all the marginal seats currently held by Labour (3 out of 3, or 100%).
The Henry Jackson Society website, has a helpful table showing the Muslim population in each constituency.
In 2011, Muslims represented 10% or more of the population in 82 constituencies. Today, they represent 10% or more of the population in 120 constituencies.
In 2011, Muslims represented 25% or more of the population in 21 constituencies. Today it is 30 constituencies.
Muslims now represent 50% or more of the population in 4 constituencies.
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