Why I don’t think the population will collapse in the long run
by Peter Jacobsen, Mercator:
The irrational pandemonium of the 20th century was the fear of a population explosion. Estimates from scientists such as Paul Ehrlich projected population growth would lead to mass starvation, death, and environmental degradation.
None of that happened.
Instead, food became more plentiful, life expectancy increased, and the environment got cleaner. This is because, as economist Julian Simon pointed out, human beings are the ultimate resource for improving the world. Population growth is good.
Now it appears, though, that the opposite problem is rising to the surface. Fertility rates are down below the level needed to sustain the size of the population in many countries.
Since population growth is a good thing, this seems like bad news. As population plummets, so does the number of creative minds ready to tackle humanity’s challenges. This issue has caught the attention of many, notably Elon Musk, who believes population collapse is humanity’s biggest threat.
To be clear, if the population is going to collapse, I agree with Musk’s concern. Growing population is the engine of human creativity, and human creativity is why we live in the wealthiest time in human history.
However, where I don’t agree is that I’m not convinced the population numbers will collapse in the long run. To understand why, we need to look at the questionable history of long-term demographic predictions and consider the importance of unplanned order.
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